Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.675276, Gini = 0.900019 and Rho = 0.858301 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (8/9/2006 to 6/18/2007), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (3/18/2016 to 12/30/2016), Forecast: S&P (from 1/3/2017 to 1/24/2017)

The top concordant period shifts to a different year again, with the top concordant period now in the 2006-07 period. While tau and rho continued to weaken, GMD strengthened, and is now in the strong range.

Given the continued weakening, forecasts based upon this concordance must be expected to be less reliable than those based upon the matches from recent weeks.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.