Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.678191, Gini = 0.901369 and Rho = 0.860995 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (8/15/2006 to 6/22/2007), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (3/24/2017 to 1/6/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 1/9/2017 to 1/30/2017)

The top concordant period shifts by a week in the most common pattern of calendar advance, with the top concordant period remaining the 2006-07 period. All three metrics improved a fractional percent, but with only GINI in the strong range.

Given the small improvement, forecasts based upon this concordance must be expected to be roughly comparable in accuracy to the previous week's.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.