Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.613266, Gini = 0.891512 and Rho = 0.817545 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (3/11/2013 to 1/14/2015), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (4/1/2016 to 1/13/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 1/17/2017 to 2/6/2017)

The top concordant period again shifts to a different year-range. All three metrics declined, with GMD dropping below the strong range, and both Tau and Rho declining more than 0.04.

Given this weakening, along with the shift to a wholly different year-range, forecasts based upon this concordance likely be less reliable than the previous week's.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.