Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.619698, Gini = 0.893623 and Rho = 0.821306 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (3/17/2014 to 1/22/2015), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (4/7/2016 to 1/20/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 1/23/2017 to 2/10/2017)

The top concordant period shifts by a week, displaying the common pattern of calendar-shifting concordance alignments. All three metrics declined, with GMD dropping below the strong range, and both Tau and Rho declining more than 0.04.

As all three metrics improved, but by small margins, forecasts based upon this concordance likely be comparable in realibility to the previous week's.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.