Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.646181, Gini = 0.889537 and Rho = 0.841801 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (3/10/2003 to 1/13/2004), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (4/14/2016 to 1/27/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 1/30/2017 to 2/17/2017)

The top concordant period shifts to a different year, though there is a near alignment by date between last week's top concordant period, and this week's. Both Tau and Rho have improved relative to last week's concordant period, with GMD slipping by only a small margin.

The improvement in the concordance is small enough (and still outside the strong range) so forecasts based on this concordance may be only somewhat better than the prior concordance.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.