Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.619447, Gini = 0.897117 and Rho = 0.825298 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (3/31/2014 to 2/5/15), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (4/21/2016 to 2/3/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 2/6/2017 to 2/24/2017)

The top concordant period shifts to a different year again, and again there is a near alignment by date between last week's top concordant period, and this week's. Both Tau and Rho declined relative to last week's concordant period, with GMD improved.

The decline in the concordance is small, and in aggregate outside the strong range. Forecasts based on this concordance may be less reliable than the prior concordance.

NOTE: This concordance was delayed due to a power outage.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.