Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.699950, Gini = 0.927057 and Rho = 0.867912 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (6/22/2012 to 5/2/2013), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (4/28/2016 to 2/10/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 2/13/2017 to 3/3/2017)

The top concordant period shifts to a different year again, as well as losing calendar alignment with the prior concordant period. All three concordance metrics improved, with GINI/GMD now above 0.9. Tau showed the greatest improvement, increasing by betteer than 0.08.

Due to the strengthening of all three metrics, forecasts based upon this corcordance are likely to be more reliable than the previous week's.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.