Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.613317, Gini = 0.870617 and Rho = 0.803554 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (1/3/1989 to 11/6/1989), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (5/5/2016 to 2/17/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 2/20/2017 to 3/10/2017)

The top concordant period shifts into 1989, with a significant weakening in all three metrics. All three are now below the "strong" range.

Due to the weakening of all three metrics, forecasts based upon this corcordance are likely to be less reliable than the previous week's.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.