Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.663116, Gini = 0.875519 and Rho = 0.848775 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (8/16/1982 to 6/17/1983), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (5/18/2016 to 3/3/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 3/6/2017 to 3/24/2017)

The top concordant period again shifts to a different period, replacing the 2012/13 period, with the 1982/83 period. This involves a weakening in all three metrics.

A calendar alignment shift (similarity in dates) between last week's concordant period and this week's of one month later is present. Due to weakening, forecasts based upon this concordance should be expected to be less reliable than those based on last week's top concordance.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.