Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.658693, Gini = 0.875160 and Rho = 0.875160 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (8/23/1982 to 6/27/1983), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (5/25/2016 to 3/10/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 3/13/2017 to 3/31/2017)

The top concordant period again shifts in a rolling alignmnet, matching the previous week's concordance with the 1982/83 period by moving forward one week. This involves a slight weakening in all three metrics.

A calendar alignment shift (similarity in dates) between last week's concordant period and this week's of one month later is present. Due to slight weakening of the three metrics, forecasts based upon this concordance should be comparable to those based on last week's top concordance in terms of accuracy.

Note: This week's posting was delayed due to a family emergency.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.