Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.677940, Gini = 0.896429 and Rho = 0.854976 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (11/21/1988 to 9/27/1989), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (6/2/2016 to 3/17/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 3/20/2017 to 4/7/2017)

The top concordant period shifts to a different year, with a moderate strengthening in all three metrics, though still below the strong range for all three.

There is no calendar alignment between the current concordant period and that for last week. Due to strengthening of the three metrics, forecasts based upon this concordance should more reliable than those based on last week's top concordance in terms of accuracy.

Note: This week's posting was delayed due to a series of power outages.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.