Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.683719, Gini = 0.896534 and Rho = 0.859564 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (12/6/1988 to 10/11/1989), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (6/16/2016 to 3/31/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 4/3/2017 to 4/21/2017)

The top concordant period shows a one week calendar shift, with one percentage point improvement in the three metrics.

Due to small change in the three metrics, forecasts based upon this concordance should comparable to those based on last week's top concordance in terms of accuracy.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.