Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.680201, Gini = 0.895489 and Rho = 0.858582 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (12/13/1988 to 10/18/1989), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (6/23/2016 to 4/7/2017), Forecast: S&P (from 4/10/2017 to 5/1/2017)

The top concordant period again shows a one week calendar shift. All three metrics display a less than one percentage point decline.

Due to the small decline in all three metrics, forecasts based upon this concordance should roughly comparable to, or slightly less reliable than, those based on last week's top concordance.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.