Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.387186, Gini = 0.732123 and Rho = 0.552091 Predictor: S&P (7/28/1981 to 6/2/1982), Forecast: S&P (from 5/9/2016 to 5/27/2016)

Note poor concordance score for tau indicating that the recent period is not very similar to past behaviors, but a return to the top concordance being in the 1981/82 period.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.