Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.324523, Gini = 0.671843 and Rho = 0.471233 Predictor: S&P (8/11/1981 to 6/16/1982), Forecast: S&P (from 5/23/2016 to 6/17/2016)

Note the poor concordance score for tau indicating that the recent period is not strongly similar to past behaviors. However, the match between the rolling 1981/82 period and immediate history continues. There has been only one week since mid-February that the most concordant period with the most recent 200 market days has not been succeeding 200 day periods from the 1981-1982 period.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.