Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.289347, Gini = 0.656071 and Rho = 0.443776 Predictor: S&P (6/10/1991 to 4/10/1992), Forecast: S&P (from 5/31/2016 to 6/20/2016)

Note the poor concordance score for tau indicating that the recent period is not strongly similar to past behaviors. This top concordance period represents a second break from the rolling concordance with succeeding 200 day periods from the 1981-1982 period, but the next such '81-'82 period is the second highest scoring with tau, rho and GINI scores of 0.269397, 0.622027 and 0.391295, respectively.

With such low concordance scores, the top concordance period should not be viewed as a strong indicator of possible performance in the S&P 500 over the next few weeks.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.