Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.471658, Gini = 0.770977 and Rho = 0.670153 Predictor: S&P (10/8/1979 to 8/12/1980), Forecast: S&P (from 6/6/2016 to 6/24/2016)

The top concordant period (1979-80) is more strongly concordant that last weeks concordant period, and the break with the long concordance with the 1981-82 period is more definitively broken.

The concordance is still relatively week, and the resulting forecasts based upon this concordance may not, thereofore, be very predictive.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.