Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.471256, Gini = 0.775450 and Rho = 0.656566 Predictor: S&P (2/23/1982 to 12/29/1982), Forecast: S&P (from 6/13/2016 to 7/1/2016)

The top concordant period (1982) shows very nearly the same strength in all three factors (tau, rho and GINI) as last weeks 1979-80 concordant period.

This continues a period of repeated concordances with the 1979 to 1982 period, though this and the last are shifted from the long streak of tracking concordances in the 1981-1982 period.

The concordance is not strong, being rather moderate, and the resulting forecasts based upon this concordance may not, thereofore, be very predictive.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.