Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.470151, Gini = 0.788460 and Rho = 0.658011 Predictor: S&P (3/2/1982 to 1/4/1983), Forecast: S&P (from 6/20/2016 to 7/9/2016)

The top concordant period (1982-83) shows very nearly the same strength in all three factors (tau, rho and GINI) as last weeks 1982 concordant period.

This continues a period of repeated concordances with the 1979 to 1982 period, with a rolling concordance possible starting again, as this week's concordant period is shifted one week from last week's concordant period.

The concordance is not strong, but moderate, and the resulting forecasts based upon this concordance may not, thereofore, be very predictive.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.