Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.497487, Gini = 0.784168 and Rho = 0.690178 Predictor: S&P (10/29/1979 to 9/3/1980), Forecast: S&P (from 6/27/2016 to 7/18/2016)

The top concordant period (1982-83) shows slightly greater strength than last weeks 1982/83 concordant period.

The concordance is moderate, and the resulting forecasts based upon this concordance may somewhat more useful than several of the recent concordant periods' utility.

Since mid-February, the strongest concordances have fallen in the 1979-83 period, though the alignment within that period has shifted back and forth.

This correspondence is with the late Carter and early Reagan administrations, where monetary and fiscal policies were at odds, and high inflation an issue, resulting in considerable uncertainty.

Note also the the "Brexit" vote and ensuing issues constitute a non-predictable event in terms of concordance matching.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.