Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.472714, Gini = 0.767013 and Rho = 0.660186 Predictor: S&P (11/25/1979 to 9/10/1980), Forecast: S&P (from 7/5/2016 to 7/25/2016)

The top concordant period (1979-80) is slightly weaker than last weeks 1982/83 concordant period.

Since mid-February, the strongest concordances have fallen in the 1979-83 period, and this trend continues with this concordance.

This correspondence is with the late Carter and early Reagan administrations, where monetary and fiscal policies were at odds, and high inflation an issue, resulting in considerable uncertainty.

The concordance is moderate, and the resulting forecasts based upon this concordance may somewhat more useful than several of the recent concordant periods' utility.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.