Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.431809, Gini = 0.771912 and Rho = 0.624531 Predictor: S&P (11/1/1989 to 9/7/1990), Forecast: S&P (from 7/11/2016 to 7/29/2016)

The top concordant period (1989-90) is weaker than last week's concordant period.

Since mid-February, the strongest concordances have fallen in the 1979-83 period, a trend broken with this week's concordance, with the best match from that period ('82-'83) coming in at tenth best with far weaker concordance score.

The concordance is moderate-but-weaker, and the resulting forecasts based upon this concordance may less reliable.

SPECIAL NOTE: This concordance period (1989-90) includes the lead-up to and start of the July 1990 to March 1991 U.S. recession.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.