Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.496181, Gini = 0.819263 and Rho = 0.669674 Predictor: S&P (6/10/1985 to 4/16/1986), Forecast: S&P (from 7/18/2016 to 8/5/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) is stronger than last week's concordant period.

Since mid-February, the strongest concordances have fallen in the 1979-83 period, a trend broken by this and last week's concordance.

The concordance is moderate-but-stronger, and forecasts based upon this concordance may be somewhat more reliable.

SPECIAL NOTE: This is the first concordance since mid-February that hasn't been associated with either the July '81 or July '90 recessions.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.