Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.571156, Gini = 0.859590 and Rho = 0.748032 Predictor: S&P (6/5/1985 to 4/11/1986), Forecast: S&P (from 7/25/2016 to 8/12/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) is noticeably stronger than last week's concordant period.

The concordant period for this week overlaps last week's concordant period, but moves backwards by five calendar days, with starting date of 6/5/85, as opposed to last week's 6/10/85.

The concordance is at the upper end of the moderate range, and forecasts based upon this concordance may be somewhat more reliable.

SPECIAL NOTE: This is the second weekly concordance since mid-February that hasn't been associated with either the July '81 or July '90 recessions.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.