Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.587337, Gini = 0.865246 and Rho = 0.760587 Predictor: S&P (6/12/1985 to 4/18/1986), Forecast: S&P (from 8/1/2016 to 8/19/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) is slightly stronger than last week's concordant period, and is simply shifted one week later than last week's period.

This means we have an overlap, again, between this week's concordant period and this weeks that is just a calendar shift.

The concordance is at the upper end of the moderate range, and forecasts based upon this concordance abotu as reliable as for last week.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.