Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.601005, Gini = 0.868627 and Rho = 0.768590 Predictor: S&P (6/19/1985 to 4/25/1986), Forecast: S&P (from 8/8/2016 to 8/26/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) is again stronger than the previous week's concordant period, and is again shifted one week later than last week's period.

This is the fourth consecutive overlap in coordances between current period and the one-week-shifted 1985-86 concordant period.

The concordance is at the upper end of the moderate range, and forecasts based upon this concordance slight more reliable than for last week.

NOTE: The August 8, 2016 concordance update was delayed due to technical issues.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.