Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.611910, Gini = 0.878198 and Rho = 0.810108 Predictor: S&P (6/30/1977 to 9/11/1978), Forecast: S&P (from 8/15/2016 to 9/1/2016)

The top concordant period (1977-78) is again stronger than the previous week's concordant period, but breaks the trend of calendar shift current and concordant periods by a week.

The concordant period is, however, like the previous four in that it basically seasonally aligned, though not calendar aligned.

The concordance is at the upper end of the moderate range, and forecasts based upon this concordance more reliable than for last week.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.