Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.641106, Gini = 0.892421 and Rho = 0.835749 Predictor: S&P (11/11/1977 to 9/19/1978), Forecast: S&P (from 8/22/2016 to 9/12/2016)

The top concordant period (1977-78) is again more strongly concordant than the previous week's concordant period, and renews the trend of calendar shifting current and concordant periods by a week.

The concordant period is again seasonally aligned, though not calendar perfectly calendar aligned.

The concordance is at the upper end of the moderate range, as well as slightly stronger than the previous week's concordance, so that forecasts based upon this concordance more reliable than for last week.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.