Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.687337, Gini = 0.913385 and Rho = 0.849136 Predictor: S&P (7/11/1985 to 5/19/1986), Forecast: S&P (from 8/29/2016 to 9/19/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) breaks with the previous sliding concordance with the seasonally (and nearly calendar aligned) 1978-79 pattern.

The concordanhas strengthend, and in all three metrics. Gini is well into the "strong" region, and Rho is nearing "strong", though Tau is still in the moderately strong category.

The concordance may be regarded as near the top of the moderate range, so forecasts based upon this concordance may be more reliable than for last week.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.