Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.709648, Gini = 0.913348 and Rho = 0.849136 Predictor: S&P (7/18/1985 to 5/23/1986), Forecast: S&P (from 9/6/2016 to 9/26/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) is a one-week offset from last week's best concordance match. Thus the recent and concordant periods are displaying a rolling alignment.

The concordanhas strengthend in two of three metrics, with only GINI weakening slightly

The concordance is near the top of the moderate range, so forecasts based upon this concordance may be more reliable than for last week.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.