Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.724774, Gini = 0.918648 and Rho = 0.885738 Predictor: S&P (7/24/1985 to 5/30/1986), Forecast: S&P (from 9/12/2016 to 9/30/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) is again one-week offset from last week's best concordance match, displaying a rolling alignment with recent market behavior

The concordance has strengthened, being in the "strong" concordance region in two of three metrics, and nearing strong in the third.

Given the strengthening concordance, forecasts based upon this concordance may be more reliable than for last week, though Friday's strongly down market is not adequately accounted for in the concordant period.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.