Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.741156, Gini = 0.927294 and Rho = 0.902705 Predictor/Concordant Period: S&P (7/31/1985 to 6/6/1986), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (12/2/15 to 9/16/16), Forecast: S&P (from 9/19/2016 to 10/7/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) again displays a rolling alignment with recent market behavior

The concordance has strengthened, yet again, with only Tau not in the "strong" range (>= 0.75).

Given the strengthening concordance, forecasts based it may be more reliable than for recent week, though the greater volatility of the 1985-86 period introduces uncertainty.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.