Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.761256, Gini = 0.935242 and Rho = 0.921818 Predictor/Concordant Period: S&P (8/14/1985 to 6/20/1986), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (12/16/15 to 9/30/16), Forecast: S&P (from 10/3/2016 to 10/21/2016)

The top concordant period (1985-86) continues to display a rolling alignment with recent market behavior, and has improved slightly in terms of Tau and Rho, with a slight decline in Gini.

The concordance is in a strong concordance range, with Tau passing 0.75, and both GINI and Rho greater than 0.9.

Given the strengthen of this concordance relative to last week's, forecasts based on it should be roughly comparable in terms of reliability.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.