Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.764874, Gini = 0.942539 and Rho = 0.926180 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (7/19/1996 to 5/23/1997), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (1/15/2016 to 10/28/2016), Forecast: S&P (from 10/31/2016 to 11/18/2016)

The top concordant period (1996-97) breaks the pattern of rolling concordance with 1985-86. There is as yet no known historical parallel, other than concordance (such as impending elections), between these periods.

The concordance is in a strong concordance range, with Tau, GINI and Rho greater than 0.75, 0.9 and 0.9 respectively.

Given the strength of this concordance, forecasts based on this concordance should be comparable to those based on the previous week's in terms of reliability.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.