Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.688693, Gini = 0.913359 and Rho = 0.873700 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (7/27/1995 to 5/31/1996), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (1/25/2016 to 11/4/2016), Forecast: S&P (from 11/7/2016 to 11/29/2016)

The top concordant period (1995-96) shifts a year (less a week) earlier than last week's concordance. There is as yet no known historical parallel, other than concordance (such as impending elections), between these periods.

The concordance drops from the strong concordance range in all three metrics used.

Forecasts based upon this concordance must be expected to be somewhat less reliable than those based upon the past few weeks' matches, due to this weakening.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.