Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.696131, Gini = 0.911575 and Rho = 0.872389 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (8/2/1996 to 6/9/1997), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (2/1/2016 to 11/11/2016), Forecast: S&P (from 11/14/2016 to 12/6/2016)

The top concordant period (1996-97) shifts a year later than last week's concordance. There is as yet no known historical parallel, other than concordance, between these periods.

The concordance drops further from the strong concordance of two weeks ago in all three metrics used, though Gini remains strong, despite further weakening.

Forecasts based upon this concordance must be expected to be less reliable than those based upon the past few weeks' matches, due to this weakening.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.