Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.662864, Gini = 0.900587 and Rho = 0.849725 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (8/10/1995 to 6/17/1996), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (2/8/2016 to 11/18/2016), Forecast: S&P (from 11/21/2016 to 12/12/2016)

The top concordant period (1995-96) shifts back to the rolling concordance from two weeks ago. Thus, we see some concordance parallels between the 1995-96, 1996-97 and recent market behaviors.

The concordance strength drops further from the strong concordance of three weeks ago in all three metrics used, with only Gini remaining strong, though also weakening.

Forecasts based upon this concordance must be expected to be less reliable than those based upon the past few weeks' matches, due to this weakening.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.

Concordance reporting delayed due to holiday/travel.