Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.660955, Gini = 0.900083 and Rho = 0.848498 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (8/23/1995 to 6/27/1996), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (2/22/2016 to 12/2/2016), Forecast: S&P (from 12/4/2016 to 12/23/2016)

The top concordant period (1995-96) is a rolling concordance match in sequence. Thus, parallels between the 1995-96 and the last 200 market days continue, but are not calendar aligned.

The concordance strength drops slight from two weeks ago in all three metrics used, with only Gini remaining strong.

Forecasts based upon this concordance must be expected to be roughtly as reliable as those based upon the matches from two weeks prior.

Please note that last week's concordance report was not completed, and this week's was late due to technical problems with the system that performs the operations required. These should be resolved shortly.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.

Concordance reporting delayed due to holiday/travel.