Concordance Based Stock Index Prediction

Measures: Tau = 0.615427, Gini = 0.888000 and Rho = 0.799430 Concordant+Predictor Period: S&P (2/20/2013 to 12/26/2013), Most Recent 200 Market Days: S&P (3/14/2016 to 12/23/2016), Forecast: S&P (from 12/27/2016 to 1/17/2017)

The top concordant period shifts to a year earlier, and shows a rough alignment with the same calendar period, being off by three weeks. While two metrics held roughly stable in terms of value (though not in date sequence), Rho weakened. Thus, the concordance remains in the moderately strong range, though slightly weaker.

Given the slight weakening, forecasts based upon this concordance must be expected to be slightly less reliable than those based upon the matches from recent weeks.

Graph showing concordance over full periods, scaled for percent change, plus forecast.

Graph showing concordance over last 67 days including 15 day forecast.

Concordance reporting delayed due to holiday/travel.